I feel there is a complacency setting in, boy who cried wolf style, that because Malthus et al have been wrong thus far that it will always remain so.
While a near doubling in wheat prices in 2008 had a marginal effect on production it wasn't staggering.
Govts around the world have reduced spending on agriculture research and development, reduced govt held stockpiles of foodstuffs and have been infringing on farming for the benefit of the environment - returning water to rivers and swamps, setting aside land for conservation and even buying farm land for national parks.
A push for plantation forestry, for wood or future carbon credits, residential and mining development continue to reduce available arable farmland.
Throw in some fishery depletion around the world and I'm a little concerned that another couple of billion mouths in the next few decades will stretch available resources. And I just can't see where the big improvement in yields that needs to
arrive is going to come from.
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