The current BHP takeover attempt of Potash Inc confirms my belief that Phosphate fertiliser supply is going to become one of the greatest issues facing urbanised populations.
We can't synthesize P, so it is a finite resource, and current use rates suggest only measuring current known deposit lifespans in centuries.
We know we can make Nitrogen, and replace fossil fuels but what do we do if we anticipate another few hundred millenia of human existence.P has to be mined and transported from diminishing reserves. Subject to both fuel price increases and the laws of supply and demand.
While the financial impact in the short term maybe slight (to first world consumers) at some point the cost of returning nutrients from cities to the land that supports them must be taken into account.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Monday, August 9, 2010
Feeding the World
Any illusion that the world is swimming in food must surely be shattered when analyzing the effect a modest downgrade of the global wheat crop has had in recent weeks. An approximate supply cut of 5% has increased prices by some 50%, though things are settling a little now.
This is after 2 record crops in the previous 2 years, and a crop this year still predicted to be in the top 10 of production highs.
This is after 2 record crops in the previous 2 years, and a crop this year still predicted to be in the top 10 of production highs.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Biofuels and food production
My thinking on Bio-fuels is that rather than being a threat to food availability, they may be a saviour if should something catastrophic happen to some of the worlds major crop producers.
The reason I say this is because a significant amount of feedstock must be stored somewhere to keep the factories running months after harvest - until the next harvest comes around. What we have is a stockpile that has a use (rather than a "just in case") that can be commandeered for food if necessary.
The demand from biofuels creates the demand and profitability in the short term to gear up to the grain production that will be required in the future as population expands. It would be preferable to continue this way and be ahead with production than trail from behind. The implication being hunger if we can't catch up.
The reason I say this is because a significant amount of feedstock must be stored somewhere to keep the factories running months after harvest - until the next harvest comes around. What we have is a stockpile that has a use (rather than a "just in case") that can be commandeered for food if necessary.
The demand from biofuels creates the demand and profitability in the short term to gear up to the grain production that will be required in the future as population expands. It would be preferable to continue this way and be ahead with production than trail from behind. The implication being hunger if we can't catch up.
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