Populate AND Perish

I feel there is a complacency setting in, boy who cried wolf style, that because Malthus et al have been wrong thus far that it will always remain so.
While a near doubling in wheat prices in 2008 had a marginal effect on production it wasn't staggering.
Govts around the world have reduced spending on agriculture research and development, reduced govt held stockpiles of foodstuffs and have been infringing on farming for the benefit of the environment - returning water to rivers and swamps, setting aside land for conservation and even buying farm land for national parks.
A push for plantation forestry, for wood or future carbon credits, residential and mining development continue to reduce available arable farmland.
Throw in some fishery depletion around the world and I'm a little concerned that another couple of billion mouths in the next few decades will stretch available resources. And I just can't see where the big improvement in yields that needs to
arrive is going to come from.

Murray Darling Buybacks

There are a few comments about the cost to govt of providing the Murray Darling Basin with more environmental water. More specifically that farmers are being "over-compensated".

1, Farmers who choose to sell do so at market price. They wear the devaluation of their redundant on-farm infrastructure at no cost to govt. As do other farmers who don't sell entitlement yet find their development devalued because other farms sold with little or no water have lost value, leading to equity pressures with lenders. Uncompensated.

2, Irrigation in the MDB generates in excess of $5billion of produce a year, making me think that the tax govt receives from MDB irrigation activities is in excess of the $1billion a year govt intends using to strangle irrigation in the Basin. Ironic that farmers in the basin effectively could be paying for their own dismantling and "compensation".

3, the govt, in the form of the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder, will actually hold an investment at the end of it all. An investment in water entitlements that will increase over time, moreso with a lower trading base of available entitlement.

Net cost to non-MDBA resident taxpayer - slight.

The Murray Darling Basin Plan

The eventual release of the MDBA plan at 4.00pm on a Friday afternoon demonstrated the political undertones of such.

If agriculturalists, in this case predominately irrigators, had any illusion as to their importance to society this should surely set the record straight. As the CEO of the MDBA stated environment is mentioned in the Water Act over 250 times, and Agriculture 4 times.

What I as an irrigator find hard to understand is how only 3 years ago 1500GL was in the upperband of estimated requirements to "save" the rivers, and now 4000GL is a compromise, with 7600GL being optimum. Especially since there has been no chance to accumulate 1500GL of water and see it's improvement, at whatever that level would be.

Some have been critical of emotion displayed by farmers and their communities and can't help wondering if it's because they don't understand the sense of community that small towns and disticts evoke. This IS a big deal for rural towns who depend on irrigated agriculture. It will be the final push for some and will mean friends and even family members moving away.

You'll have to forgive raw emotion toward a plan yet to spell out the rationale behind the figures, and indisputably wrong on figures already published. These are real people and the "precautionary principle" appling to the basin plan should apply to them too.

BHP and Phosphate

The current BHP takeover attempt of Potash Inc confirms my belief that Phosphate fertiliser supply is going to become one of the greatest issues facing urbanised populations.

We can't synthesize P, so it is a finite resource, and current use rates suggest only measuring current known deposit lifespans in centuries.
We know we can make Nitrogen, and replace fossil fuels but what do we do if we anticipate another few hundred millenia of human existence.P has to be mined and transported from diminishing reserves. Subject to both fuel price increases and the laws of supply and demand.

While the financial impact in the short term maybe slight (to first world consumers) at some point the cost of returning nutrients from cities to the land that supports them must be taken into account.

Feeding the World

Any illusion that the world is swimming in food must surely be shattered when analyzing the effect a modest downgrade of the global wheat crop has had in recent weeks. An approximate supply cut of 5% has increased prices by some 50%, though things are settling a little now.

This is after 2 record crops in the previous 2 years, and a crop this year still predicted to be in the top 10 of production highs.

Biofuels and food production

My thinking on Bio-fuels is that rather than being a threat to food availability, they may be a saviour if should something catastrophic happen to some of the worlds major crop producers.
The reason I say this is because a significant amount of feedstock must be stored somewhere to keep the factories running months after harvest - until the next harvest comes around. What we have is a stockpile that has a use (rather than a "just in case") that can be commandeered for food if necessary.

The demand from biofuels creates the demand and profitability in the short term to gear up to the grain production that will be required in the future as population expands. It would be preferable to continue this way and be ahead with production than trail from behind. The implication being hunger if we can't catch up.

Foreign Ownership of Australian Land and Water

There is a political call for registration of farm sales to foreign interests.

I don't have an issue with that, once Australian investors and farmers see how atractive our resources really are they may have more confidence to invest themselves.
It is interesting that during a period of high local currency value and a consequent disadvantage to foreign buyers, that interest in Australian farming assets is so strong.
Unfortunately homegrown buyers have to contend with an interest rate several percent higher than other nations and are competing with superannuation and fund monies that don't have to service debt during droughts and floods.

What I do wonder is what politicians wish to do about foreign ownership, presumably there is some limit they have in mind. And what that means for sales when that limit is reached.

Some other views at Agmates.